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Jul 28, 2022

Chun Wang,  senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the market has priced in a shallow recession -- a near soft landing -- but that the Federal Reserve's record of engineering such a smooth outcome is poor, leaving a strong chance that the central bank tightens too much and dramatically increases the risk and severity of recession. Wang believes that inflation has peaked or nearly peaked, but that it will likely settle in around 5 percent -- a level higher than the Fed wants -- eliminating the obvious moves and leaving much harder choices amid a damaged market in 2023. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about two key factors in today's market -- high quality and low volatility -- in picking his ETF of the Week, Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM returns to help Chuck answer an audience member's question on trying to take advantage of changes in exchange rates around the strengthening dollar, and Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors discusses the 'expected value' of buying a Mega Millions ticket for this week's billion-dollar lottery, and why this is one of the rare times when it makes investment sense to take a flyer.